Winter is Coming: The Long-Run Effects of Climate Change on Conflict, 1400-1900

Murat Iyigun, Nathan Nunn and Nancy Qian

No 23033, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We investigate the long-run effects of cooling on conflict. We construct a geo-referenced and digitized database of conflicts in Europe, North Africa, and the Near East from 1400-1900, which we merge with historical temperature data. We show that cooling is associated with increased conflict. When we allow the effects of cooling over a fifty-year period to depend on the extent of cooling during the preceding period, the effect of cooling on conflict is larger in locations that experienced earlier cooling. We interpret this as evidence that the adverse effects of climate change intensify with its duration.

JEL-codes: N43 N53 O13 P16 Q34 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-env, nep-evo, nep-gro and nep-his
Note: DEV EEE POL
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (21)

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Working Paper: Winter is Coming: The Long-Run Effects of Climate Change on Conflict, 1400-1900 (2017)
Working Paper: Winter is Coming: The Long-Run Effects of Climate Change on Conflict, 1400-1900 (2017)
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