Macroeconomic Determinants of International Migration to the UK
Giuseppe Forte and
Jonathan Portes ()
No 10802, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
This paper examines the determinants of long-term international migration to the UK; we explore the extent to which migration is driven by macroeconomic variables (GDP per capita, unemployment rate) as well as law and policy (the existence of "free movement" rights for EEA nationals). We find a very large impact from free movement within the EEA. We also find that macroeconomic variables – UK GDP growth and GDP at origin – are significant drivers of migration flows; evidence for the impact of the unemployment rate in countries of origin, or of the exchange rate, however, is weak. We conclude that, while future migration flows will be driven by a number of factors, macroeconomic and otherwise, Brexit and the end of free movement will result in a large fall in immigration from EEA countries to the UK.
Keywords: immigration; EU; Brexit; UK (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F22 J61 J68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-lab and nep-mig
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Working Paper: Macroeconomic Determinants of International Migration to the UK (2017)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10802
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