Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide

Cevat Giray Aksoy, Sergei Guriev and Daniel Treisman

No 13026, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: How does international trade affect the popularity of governments and leaders? The recent backlash against globalization renders this question extremely topical. Yet, most previous work has looked for political effects of aggregate trade flows without decomposing into particular types of products. We provide the first large-scale, global evidence that trade shocks affect political approval and show that what matters is the match between workers' skills and the characteristics of goods traded. Using a unique data set including 118 countries, we show that growth in high skill intensive exports increases approval of incumbents among skilled individuals. Growth in high skill intensive imports has the opposite effect. High skill intensive trade has no discernible effect on the unskilled. To identify exogenous variation, we exploit the time-varying effects of air and sea distances on bilateral trade flows. Our findings help explain responses to trade of economic elites in developing and middle income countries.

Keywords: political approval; international trade; skill intensity of trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 F14 G02 P16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 87 pages
Date: 2020-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Published - revised version published in: Journal of Politics, 2024, 86 (4), 1177 - 1191

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https://docs.iza.org/dp13026.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide (2022)
Working Paper: Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide (2022)
Working Paper: Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide (2022)
Working Paper: Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide (2022)
Working Paper: Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide (2018)
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