Is Secessionism Mostly about Income or Identity? A Global Analysis of 3,003 Subnational Regions

Klaus Desmet, Ignacio Ortuño Ortín () and Ömer Özak
Additional contact information
Ignacio Ortuño Ortín: Universidad Carlos III de Madrid

No 15570, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: This paper analyzes whether the propensity to secede by subnational regions responds mostly to differences in income per capita or to distinct identities. We explore this question in a quantitative political economy model where people's willingness to finance a public good depends on their income and identity. Using high-resolution economic and linguistic data for the entire globe, we predict the propensity to secede of 3,003 subnational regions in 173 countries. We validate the model-based predictions with data on secessionist movements, state fragility, regional autonomy, and conflict, as well as with an application to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Counterfactual analysis strongly suggests that identity trumps income in determining a region's propensity to secede. Removing identity differences reduces the average support for secession from 7.5% to 0.6% of the population.

Keywords: political economy; identity; conflict; federalism; separatism; secessionism; international relations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D70 D74 F02 F52 H77 P00 Z10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 46 pages
Date: 2022-09
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Published - published online in: Economic Journal , 06 December 2024

Downloads: (external link)
https://docs.iza.org/dp15570.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Is Secessionism Mostly About Income or Identity? A Global Analysis of 3,003 Subnational Regions (2023)
Working Paper: Is Secessionism Mostly About Income or Identity? A Global Analysis of 3,003 Subnational Regions (2022)
Working Paper: Is Secessionism Mostly About Income or Identity? A Global Analysis of 3,003 Subnational Regions (2022)
Working Paper: Is Secessionism Mostly About Income or Identity? A Global Analysis of 3,003 Subnational Regions (2022)
Working Paper: Is Secessionism Mostly About Income or Identity? A Global Analysis of 3,003 Subnational Regions (2022)
Working Paper: Is Secessionism Mostly About Income or Identity? A Global Analysis of 3,003 Subnational Regions (2022)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15570

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
IZA, Margard Ody, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) IZA, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Holger Hinte ().