Is Secessionism Mostly About Income or Identity? A Global Analysis of 3,003 Subnational Regions

Klaus Desmet, Ignacio Ortuño-Ortín and Ömer Özak

No 30428, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper analyzes whether the propensity to secede by subnational regions responds mostly to differences in income per capita or to distinct identities. We explore this question in a quantitative political economy model where people's willingness to finance a public good depends on their income and identity. Using high-resolution economic and linguistic data for the entire globe, we predict the propensity to secede of 3,003 subnational regions in 173 countries. We validate the model-based predictions with data on secessionist movements, state fragility, regional autonomy, and conflict, as well as with an application to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Counterfactual analysis strongly suggests that identity trumps income in determining a region's propensity to secede. Removing identity differences reduces the average support for secession from 7.5% to 0.6% of the population.

JEL-codes: D70 F02 F52 H77 P00 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ure
Note: DEV EFG ITI LE PE POL
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Related works:
Working Paper: Is Secessionism Mostly About Income or Identity? A Global Analysis of 3,003 Subnational Regions (2023)
Working Paper: Is Secessionism Mostly about Income or Identity? A Global Analysis of 3,003 Subnational Regions (2022)
Working Paper: Is Secessionism Mostly About Income or Identity? A Global Analysis of 3,003 Subnational Regions (2022)
Working Paper: Is Secessionism Mostly About Income or Identity? A Global Analysis of 3,003 Subnational Regions (2022)
Working Paper: Is Secessionism Mostly About Income or Identity? A Global Analysis of 3,003 Subnational Regions (2022)
Working Paper: Is Secessionism Mostly About Income or Identity? A Global Analysis of 3,003 Subnational Regions (2022)
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