Labor-Market Consequences of Cross-Border Employment: A Machine Learning Approach

Andrea Albanese () and David Marguerit ()
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Andrea Albanese: Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)
David Marguerit: Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)

No 18674, IZA Discussion Papers from IZA Network @ LISER

Abstract: Cross-border work is expanding in the EU, yet its labor-market effects on the cross-border workers themselves remain largely undocumented. Using linked Belgian administrative registers that identify cross-border spells in Luxembourg, we estimate the effects of cross-border employment on post-return labor-market outcomes through dynamic double machine learning. Returnees face a short-run employment penalty that fades with cross-border tenure and time since return. They are also more likely to receive Belgian unemployment benefits than comparable stayers, with higher daily benefit levels among recipients.

Keywords: cross-border commuting; return migration; unemployment insurance; EU labor mobility; administrative data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 C21 I38 J61 J64 J65 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-05
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18674

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