Heterogeneous impacts of COVID-19 on trade: evidence from China's province-level data

Dapeng Cai and Kazunobu Hayakawa

No 803, IDE Discussion Papers from Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO)

Abstract: This study investigates how the extent of COVID-19 damage affected China’s province-level trade with foreign countries and reports the heterogeneous effects of these damages. Using monthly trade data for January–August 2019 and 2020 and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, in a gravity equation, we measure the damage extent on exports and imports separately. The results show that a provincial rise in the confirmed cases decreases exports and imports, especially until March. The larger negative effects of COVID-19 are more prominent on the processing than ordinary trade; these effects are smaller in provinces with a larger number of deaths during the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak. However, urbanization and mobile phone diffusion exhibit a potential to mitigate these effects on trade.

Keywords: COVID-19; International Trade; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F15 F61 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-12
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Published in IDE Discussion Paper = IDE Discussion Paper, No. 803. 2020-12

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https://ir.ide.go.jp/record/51950/files/IDP000803_001.pdf First version, 2020 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Heterogeneous Impacts of COVID-19 on trade: Evidence from China’s province-level data (2022)
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