NBP Working Papers

From Narodowy Bank Polski
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273: How far does monetary policy reach? Evidence from factor-augmented vector autoregressions for Poland

Mariusz Kapuściński

272: The concentration and bank stability in Central and Eastern European countries

Renata Karkowska and Małgorzata Pawłowska

271: Elasticity of substitution between labor and capital: robust evidence from developed economies

Jakub Mućk

270: The role of China in the world economy: evidence from global VAR model

Anna Sznajderska

269: Fiscal devaluation and economic activity in the EU

Piotr Ciżkowicz, Bartosz Radzikowski, Andrzej Rzońca and Wiktor Wojciechowski

268: Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports in the run-up to the EMU accession

Lukasz Goczek and Dagmara Mycielska

267: Determinants of low inflation in an emerging, small open economy. A comparison of aggregated and disaggregated approaches

Karol Szafranek and Aleksandra Hałka

266: Interest premium and economic growth: the case of CEE

Dániel Baksa and István Kónya

265: Factor-specific technology choice

Jakub Growiec

264: Is Central and Eastern Europe converging towards the EU-15?

Marcin Grela, Aleksandra Majchrowska, Tomasz Michałek, Jakub Mućk, Agnieszka Stazka-Gawrysiak, Grzegorz Tchorek and Marcin Wagner

263: Could the boom-bust in the eurozone periphery have been prevented?

Marcin Bielecki, Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa and Krzysztof Makarski

262: Bagged artificial neural networks in forecasting inflation: An extensive comparison with current modelling frameworks

Karol Szafranek

261: Formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times. Recent evidence from the European Survey of Professional Forecasters

Tomasz Łyziak and Maritta Paloviita

260: Exchange rate forecasting with DSGE models

Marcin Kolasa, Michał Rubaszek and Michele Ca' Zorzi

259: Global value chains, innovation and firms’ performance during the crisis

Valentina Meliciani and Grzegorz Tchorek

258: Dynamic term structure models with score-driven time-varying parameters: estimation and forecasting

Siem Jan Koopman, Andre Lucas and Marcin Zamojski

257: Early warning models of banking crises applicable to non-crisis countries

Piotr Bańbuła and Marcin Pietrzak

256: Forecasting with FAVAR: macroeconomic versus financial factors

Alessia Paccagnini

255: The impact of inflation expectations on Polish consumers’ spending and saving

Filip Premik and Ewa Stanisławska

254: Economic, institutional and socio-cultural determinants of consumer credit in the context of monetary integration

Jakub Borowski, Krystian Jaworski and Jakub Olipra

253: Inequality, fiscal policy, and business cycle anomalies in emerging markets

Amanda Michaud and Jacek Rothert

252: Consumption over the life cycle in Poland

Arkadiusz Florczak and Janusz Jabłonowski

251: Has trade been driving global economic growth?

Leon Podkaminer

250: The nonlinear nature of country risk and its implications for DSGE models

Michal Brzoza-Brzezina and Jacek Kotłowski

249: Monetary policy transmission mechanism in Poland.What do we know in 2015?

Mariusz Kapuściński, Andrzej Kocięcki, Halina Kowalczyk, Tomasz Łyziak, Jan Przystupa, Ewa Stanisławska, Anna Sznajderska and Ewa Wróbel

248: Competitiveness and export performance of CEE countries

Beata Bierut and Kamila Kuziemska-Pawlak

247: Interest rate pass-through in Poland since the global financial crisis

Mariusz Kapuściński and Ewa Stanisławska

246: Macro-financial linkages in the Polish economy: combined impulse-response functions in SVAR models

Dobromił Serwa and Piotr Wdowiński

245: The role of bank balance sheets in monetary policy transmission. Evidence from Poland

Mariusz Kapuściński

244: Prudential measures in dealing with capital flows – case of Poland

Milena Kabza and Konrad Kostrzewa

242: Do long term interest rates drive GDP and inflation in small open economies? Evidence from Poland

Grzegorz Wesołowski

241: Fan chart – a tool for NBP’s monetary policy making

Paweł Pońsko and Bartosz Rybaczyk

240: “One size does not fit all” – institutional determinantsof financial safety net effectiveness

Aleksandra Masłowska-Jokinen and Anna Matysek-Jędrych

239: Linking excessive disinflation and output movements in an emerging, small open economy A hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve perspective

Karol Szafranek

238: Are experts’ probabilistic forecasts similar to the NBP projections?

Halina Kowalczyk and Ewa Stanisławska

237: Measuring expected time to default under stress conditions for corporate loans

Mariusz Górajski, Dobromił Serwa and Zuzanna Wośko

236: On the limits of macroprudential policy

Marcin Kolasa

235: The impact of financial crisis and low inflation environment on short-term inflation expectations in Poland

Tomasz Łyziak

234: Do inflation expectations matter in a stylised New Keynesian model? The case of Poland

Tomasz Łyziak

233: Poland’s labour market adjustment in times of economic slowdown – WDN3 survey results

Paweł Strzelecki and Robert Wyszynski

232: Global or domestic? Which shocks drive inflation in European small open economies?

Aleksandra Hałka and Jacek Kotłowski

231: Crisis, contagion and international policy spillovers under foreign ownership of banks

Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa and Krzysztof Makarski

230: Why may large economies suffer more at the zero lower bound?

Michal Brzoza-Brzezina

229: The impact of market structure and the business cycle on bank profitability: the role of foreign ownership. The case of Poland

Małgorzata Pawłowska

228: The stability of macroeconomic systems with Bayesian learners

James Bullard and Jacek Suda

227: Stationarity and persistence of the term premia in the Polish money market

Michał Markun and Anna Mospan

226: Returns to skills in Europe – same or different? The empirical importance of the systems of regressions approach

Mateusz Pipień and Sylwia Roszkowska

225: What common factors are driving inflation in CEE countries?

Aleksandra Hałka and Grzegorz Szafrański

224: Lessons from the crisis.Did central banks do their homework?

Aleksandra Hałka

223: Whose inflation is it anyway? The inflation spillovers between the euro area and small open economies

Aleksandra Hałka and Karol Szafranek