Is Agricultural Production Becoming More or Less Sensitive to Extreme Heat? Evidence from U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields

Michael Roberts and Wolfram Schlenker

No 16308, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Extreme heat is the single best predictor of corn and soybean yields in the United States. While average yields have risen continuously since World War II, we find no evidence that relative tolerance to extreme heat has improved between 1950 and 2005. Climate change forecasts project a sharp increase in extreme heat by the end of the century, with the potential to significantly reduce yields under current technologies.

JEL-codes: Q1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-ene and nep-env
Note: EEE
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

Published as Is Agricultural Production Becoming More or Less Sensitive to Extreme Heat? Evidence from U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields , Michael J. Roberts, Wolfram Schlenker. in The Design and Implementation of US Climate Policy , Fullerton and Wolfram. 2012

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Chapter: Is Agricultural Production Becoming More or Less Sensitive to Extreme Heat? Evidence from U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields (2011)
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