Corn Production Shocks in 2012 and Beyond: Implications for Food Price Volatility

Steven Berry (steven.berry@yale.edu), Michael Roberts and Wolfram Schlenker

No 18659, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Corn prices increased sharply in the summer of 2012 due to expected production shortfalls in the United States, which produces roughly 40% of the world's corn. A heat wave in July adversely affected corn production. We extend earlier statistical models of county-level corn yields in the Eastern United States by allowing the effect of various weather measures to vary in a flexible manner over the growing season: Extreme heat is especially harmful around a third into the growing season. This is the time when the 2012 heat wave hit the Corn Belt. Our model predicts 2012 corn yields will be 23% below trend. While extreme heat was significantly above normal, climate change scenarios suggest that the 2012 outcomes will soon be the new normal.

JEL-codes: Q11 Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr
Note: EEE
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Published as Corn Production Shocks in 2012 and Beyond: Implications for Harvest Volatility , Steven T. Berry, Michael J. Roberts, Wolfram Schlenker. in The Economics of Food Price Volatility , Chavas, Hummels, and Wright. 2014

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