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A Macroeconomic Framework for Quantifying Systemic Risk

Zhiguo He () and Arvind Krishnamurthy

No 19885, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Systemic risk arises when shocks lead to states where a disruption in financial intermediation adversely affects the economy and feeds back into further disrupting financial intermediation. We present a macroeconomic model with a financial intermediary sector subject to an equity capital constraint. The novel aspect of our analysis is that the model produces a stochastic steady state distribution for the economy, in which only some of the states correspond to systemic risk states. The model allows us to examine the transition from "normal" states to systemic risk states. We calibrate our model and use it to match the systemic risk apparent during the 2007/2008 financial crisis. We also use the model to compute the conditional probabilities of arriving at a systemic risk state, such as 2007/2008. Finally, we show how the model can be used to conduct a macroeconomic "stress test" linking a stress scenario to the probability of systemic risk states.

JEL-codes: E44 G01 G2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-dge, nep-mac, nep-rmg and nep-sog
Date: 2014-02
Note: AG EFG ME
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (40) Track citations by RSS feed

Forthcoming in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
Published as Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2019. "A Macroeconomic Framework for Quantifying Systemic Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, vol 11(4), pages 1-37.

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Related works:
Working Paper: A Macroeconomic Framework for Quantifying Systemic Risk (2013)
Working Paper: A macroeconomic framework for quantifying systemic risk (2012) Downloads
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