Heads or Tails: The Impact of a Coin Toss on Major Life Decisions and Subsequent Happiness

Steven Levitt

No 22487, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Little is known about whether people make good choices when facing important decisions. This paper reports on a large-scale randomized field experiment in which research subjects having difficulty making a decision flipped a coin to help determine their choice. For important decisions (e.g. quitting a job or ending a relationship), those who make a change (regardless of the outcome of the coin toss) report being substantially happier two months and six months later. This correlation, however, need not reflect a causal impact. To assess causality, I use the outcome of a coin toss. Individuals who are told by the coin toss to make a change are much more likely to make a change and are happier six months later than those who were told by the coin to maintain the status quo. The results of this paper suggest that people may be excessively cautious when facing life-changing choices.

JEL-codes: D12 D81 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp, nep-hap, nep-hpe, nep-ltv and nep-neu
Note: LE LS PE
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Published as Steven D Levitt, 2021. "Heads or Tails: The Impact of a Coin Toss on Major Life Decisions and Subsequent Happiness," The Review of Economic Studies, vol 88(1), pages 378-405.

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Journal Article: Heads or Tails: The Impact of a Coin Toss on Major Life Decisions and Subsequent Happiness (2021)
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