The ‘China Shock’, Exports and U.S. Employment: A Global Input-Output Analysis

Robert Feenstra and Akira Sasahara

No 24022, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We quantify the impact on U.S. employment from imports and exports during 1995-2011, using the World Input-Output Database. We find that the growth in U.S. exports led to increased demand for 2 million jobs in manufacturing, 0.5 million in resource industries, and a remarkable 4.1 million jobs in services, totaling 6.6 million. One-third of those service sector jobs are due to the intermediate demand from merchandise (manufacturing and resource) exports, so the total labor demand gain due to merchandise exports was 3.7 million jobs. In comparison, U.S. merchandise imports from China led to reduced demand of 1.4 million jobs in manufacturing and 0.6 million in services (with small losses in resource industries), with total job losses of 2.0 million. It follows that the expansion in U.S. merchandise exports to the world relative to imports from China over 1995-2011 created net demand for about 1.7 million jobs. Comparing the growth of U.S. merchandise exports to merchandise imports from all countries, we find a fall in net labor demand due to trade, but comparing the growth of total U.S. exports to total imports from all countries, then there is a rise in net labor demand because of the growth in service exports.

JEL-codes: E16 F14 F60 O19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna, nep-int, nep-lma and nep-tid
Note: ITI
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Published as Robert C. Feenstra & Akira Sasahara, 2018. "The ‘China shock,’ exports and U.S. employment: A global input–output analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 1053-1083, November.

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