Expectations, Infections, and Economic Activity

Martin Eichenbaum, Miguel Godinho de Matos, Francisco Lima, Sergio Rebelo and Mathias Trabandt

No 27988, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper develops a quantitative theory of how people weigh the risks of infections against the benefits of engaging in social interactions that contribute to the spread of infectious diseases. Our framework takes into account the interrelated yet distinct effects of public policies and private behavior on the spread of the disease. We evaluate the model using a novel micro data set on consumption expenditures in Portugal. The estimated model accounts for the cross-sectional consumption response of individuals of different ages at a given time, as well as the time-series response of consumption of the young and old across the first three waves of Covid. Our model highlights the critical role of expectations in shaping how human behavior influences the dynamics of epidemics.

JEL-codes: E21 G51 I1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem and nep-rmg
Note: IFM
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Expectations, Infections, and Economic Activity (2024)
Working Paper: Expectations, Infections, and Economic Activity (2022)
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