The Coming Rise in Residential Inflation

Marijn Bolhuis, Judd N. L. Cramer and Lawrence Summers

No 29795, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We study how the recent run-up in housing and rental prices affects the outlook for inflation in the United States. Housing held down overall inflation in 2021. Despite record growth in private market-based measures of home prices and rents, government measured residential services inflation was only four percent for the twelve months ending in January 2022. After explaining the mechanical cause for this divergence, we estimate that, if past relationships hold, the residential inflation components of the CPI and PCE are likely to move close to seven percent during 2022. These findings imply that housing will make a significant contribution to overall inflation in 2022, ranging from one percentage point for headline PCE to 2.6 percentage points for core CPI. We expect residential inflation to remain elevated in 2023.

JEL-codes: E01 E31 E37 R21 R31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa, nep-mac, nep-mon and nep-ure
Note: EFG IFM
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Published as Marijn A Bolhuis & Judd N L Cramer & Lawrence H Summers & Chris Parsons, 2022. "The Coming Rise in Residential Inflation," Review of Finance, vol 26(5), pages 1051-1072.

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