Fatal Errors: The Mortality Value of Accurate Weather Forecasts

Jeffrey Shrader, Laura Bakkensen and Derek Lemoine

No 31361, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We provide the first revealed preference estimates of the benefits of routine weather forecasts. The benefits come from how people use advance information to reduce mortality from heat and cold. Theoretically, more accurate forecasts reduce mortality if and only if mortality risk is convex in forecast errors. We test for such convexity using data on the universe of mortality events and weather forecasts for a twelve-year period in the U.S. Results show that erroneously mild forecasts increase mortality whereas erroneously extreme forecasts do not reduce mortality. Making forecasts 50% more accurate would save 2,200 lives per year. The public would be willing to pay $112 billion to make forecasts 50% more accurate over the remainder of the century, of which $22 billion reflects how forecasts facilitate adaptation to climate change.

JEL-codes: D83 I12 Q51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem and nep-env
Note: EEE EH
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Fatal Errors: The Mortality Value of Accurate Weather Forecasts (2023)
Working Paper: Fatal Errors: The Mortality Value of Accurate Weather Forecasts (2023)
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