The Use of Replacement Workers in Union Contract Negotiations: The U.S. Experience, 1980-1989

Peter Cramton and Joseph Tracy

No 5106, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: It is argued in many circles that a structural change occurred in U.S. collective bargaining in the 1980s. We investigate the extent to which the hiring of replacement workers can account for this change. For a sample of over 300 major strikes since 1980, we estimate the likelihood of replacements being hired. We find that the risk of replacement declines during tight labor markets, and is lower for bargaining units with more experienced workers. We use the predicted replacement risk as an explanatory variable in a model of the union's choice between the strike and holdout threat. We find that strike usage decreases significantly as the predicted replacement risk increases. We estimate that a ban on the use of replacement workers would have increased strike incidence from 1982-1989 by 3 percentage points, a 30 percent increase.

JEL-codes: J52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1995-05
Note: LS
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Published as Journal of Labor Economics, Vol.16, no.4 (October 1998), pp. 667-701.

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Journal Article: The Use of Replacement Workers in Union Contract Negotiations: The U.S. Experience, 1980-1989 (1998)
Working Paper: The Use of Replacement Workers in Union Contract Negotiations: The U.S. Experience, 1980-1989 (1998)
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