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Forecasting and Evaluating Network Growth

Norah Montes de Oca, Feng Xie and David Levinson

No 10, Working Papers from University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group

Abstract: This research assesses the implications of existing trends on future network investment, comparing alternative scenarios concerning budgets and investment rules across a variety of performance measures. The main scenarios compare 'stated decision rules', processes encoded in flowcharts and weights developed from official documents or by discussion with agency staff, with 'revealed decision rules', weights estimated statistically based on observed historical behavior. This research specifies the processes necessary to run the network forecasting models with various decision rules. Results for different scenarios are presented including adding additional constraints for the transportation network expansion and calibration process details. We find that alternative decision rules make only small differences in overall system performance, though they direct investments to very different locations. However, changes in total budget can make a significant difference to system-wide performance.

JEL-codes: R41 R42 R48 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cse, nep-for and nep-net
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Published in Networks and Spatial Economics 12(2) 239–262

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/11299/180023 Second version, 2012 (application/pdf)

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Journal Article: Forecasting and Evaluating Network Growth (2012) Downloads
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