High school and exam scores: Does their predictive validity for academic performance vary with programme selectivity?

Pedro Luis Silva (), Carla Sá (), Ricardo Biscaia and Pedro N. Teixeira
Additional contact information
Carla Sá: NIPE/Center for Research in Economics and Management, University of Minho; and Centre for Research in Higher Education Policies (CIPES)
Ricardo Biscaia: Centre for Research in Higher Education Policies (CIPES), Portugal; and School of Economics and Management (FEP), University of Porto, Portugal
Pedro N. Teixeira: Centre for Research in Higher Education Policies (CIPES), Portugal and School of Economics and Management (FEP), University of Porto, Portugal and IZA Institute of Labor Economics, Germany

No 4/2022, NIPE Working Papers from NIPE - Universidade do Minho

Abstract: Students are admitted into higher education based on their past performance.This paper compares two measures of past cognitive skills: teacher and national exam scores. By using a nationwide dataset, we look at how the predictive power of teacher assessment and exam scores for selecting successful students may vary with the degree of selectivity of higher education programmes. We find that teacher scores predict students’ performance in higher education more accurately, and its predictive power remains the same independently of the selectivity programme indicator considered. We found that national exam scores are noisier and only gain relevance for highly selective programmes. Furthermore, we explore national exams’ volatility and institutional selectivity as potential mechanisms to justify the results. Our results provide solid policy hints on the role that high school scores and admission exams should have for access and performance in higher education.

Keywords: Admission Exams; Teacher Scores; Higher Education; Selectivity. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I20 I21 I23 J24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-edu and nep-ure
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Working Paper: High School and Exam Scores: Does Their Predictive Validity for Academic Performance Vary with Programme Selectivity? (2022)
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