Common Learning with Intertemporal Dependence

Martin Cripps, Jeffrey Ely, George Mailath and Larry Samuelson ()
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Larry Samuelson: Department of Economics, Yale University

PIER Working Paper Archive from Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania

Abstract: Consider two agents who learn the value of an unknown parameter by observing a sequence of private signals. Will the agents commonly learn the value of the parameter, i.e., will the true value of the parameter become approximate common-knowledge? If the signals are independent and identically distributed across time (but not necessarily across agents), the answer is yes (Cripps, Ely, Mailath, and Samuelson, 2008). This paper explores the implications of allowing the signals to be dependent over time. We present a counterexample showing that even extremely simple time dependence can preclude common learning, and present sufficient conditions for common learning.

Keywords: Common learning; common belief; private signals; private beliefs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D82 D83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 42 pages
Date: 2011-05-11
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Journal Article: Common learning with intertemporal dependence (2013)
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