Probabilistic Scenario-Based Assessment of National Food Security Risks with Application to Egypt and Ethiopia

Phoebe Koundouri (), Georgios I. Papayiannis, Achilleas Vassilopoulos and Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This study presents a novel approach to assessing food security risks at the national level, employing a probabilistic scenario-based framework that integrates both Shared Socioeco-nomic Pathways (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). This innovative method allows each scenario, encompassing socio-economic and climate factors, to be treated as a model capable of generating diverse trajectories. This approach offers a more dynamic understanding of food security risks under varying future conditions. The paper details the methodologies employed, showcasing their applicability through a focused analysis of food security challenges in Egypt and Ethiopia, and underscores the importance of considering a spectrum of socio-economic and climatic factors in national food security assessments.

Keywords: food security risk; model uncertainty; probabilistic projections risk quantification; Representative Concentration Pathways; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H0 H5 I3 L1 O1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-12-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-ara
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Working Paper: Probabilistic Scenario-Based Assessment of National Food Security Risks with Application to Egypt and Ethiopia (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:122007

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