Probabilistic Scenario-Based Assessment of National Food Security Risks with Application to Egypt and Ethiopia

Phoebe Koundouri (pkoundouri@aueb.gr), Georgios I. Papayiannis, Achilleas Vassilopoulos and Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos

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Abstract: This study presents a novel approach to assessing food security risks at the national level, employing a probabilistic scenario-based framework that integrates both Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). This innovative method allows each scenario, encompassing socio-economic and climate factors, to be treated as a model capable of generating diverse trajectories. This approach offers a more dynamic understanding of food security risks under varying future conditions. The paper details the methodologies employed, showcasing their applicability through a focused analysis of food security challenges in Egypt and Ethiopia, and underscores the importance of considering a spectrum of socio-economic and climatic factors in national food security assessments.

Date: 2023-12, Revised 2023-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr
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Published in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 2024, qnae046

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Working Paper: Probabilistic Scenario-Based Assessment of National Food Security Risks with Application to Egypt and Ethiopia (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2312.04428

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