House Price Expectations

Niklas Gohl, Peter Haan, Claus Michelsen and Felix Weinhardt
Additional contact information
Niklas Gohl: DIW Berlin and University of Potsdam
Peter Haan: DIW Berlin, FU Berlin and Netspar
Claus Michelsen: DIW Berlin and Leuphana University Lueneburg
Felix Weinhardt: European University Viadrina and DIW Berlin

No 313, Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series from CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition

Abstract: This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in housing markets. We derive and test six hypothesis about the incidence, formation, and relevance of price expectations. To do so, we use data from a tailored household survey, past sale and rental offerings, satellites, and from an information RCT. As novel findings, we show that price expectations exhibit mean reversion in the long-run. Moreover, we do not find evidence for biases related to individual housing tenure decisions or regret aversion. Confirming existing findings, we show that local market characteristics matter for expectations throughout, as well as aggregate price information. Lastly, we corroborate existing evidence that expectations are relevant for portfolio choice.

Keywords: housing markets; price expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-01-21
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://rationality-and-competition.de/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/313.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rco:dpaper:313

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series from CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Viviana Lalli ().