House price expectations

Niklas Gohl, Peter Haan, Claus Michelsen and Felix Weinhardt

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2024, vol. 218, issue C, 379-398

Abstract: This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in housing markets. At the heart of our analysis is the combination of data from a tailored in-person household survey, past sale offerings, satellite imagery on developable land, and an information treatment (RCT). As novel finding, we show that price expectations show no evidence for momentum-effects in the long run. We also do not find much evidence for behavioural biases in expectations related to individual housing tenure decisions. Confirming existing findings, we find momentum-effects in the short-run and that individuals, to a limited extend, use aggregate price information to update local expectations. Lastly, we provide suggestive evidence corroborating existing findings that expectations are relevant for portfolio choice.

Keywords: Housing; House price expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D14 R21 R31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:218:y:2024:i:c:p:379-398

DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2023.12.015

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