Time-Varying Oil Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Aggregates
Nora Traum () and
Michael Plante ()
No 455, 2012 Meeting Papers from Society for Economic Dynamics
We illustrate the theoretical relation among output, consumption, investment, and oil price volatility in a real business cycle model. The model incorporates demand for oil by a firm, as an intermediate input, and by a household, used in conjunction with a durable good. We estimate a stochastic volatility process for the real price of oil over the period 1986-2011 and utilize the estimated process in a non-linear approximation of the model. For realistic calibrations, an increase in oil price volatility produces a temporary decrease in durable spending, while precautionary savings motives lead investment and real GDP to rise. Irreversible capital and durable investment decisions do not overturn this result.
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Working Paper: Time-varying oil price volatility and macroeconomic aggregates (2012)
Working Paper: Time-Varying Oil Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Aggregates (2012)
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