Time-varying oil price volatility and macroeconomic aggregates

Michael Plante () and Nora Traum

No 1201, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Abstract: We illustrate the theoretical relation among output, consumption, investment, and oil price volatility in a real business-cycle model. The model incorporates demand for oil by a firm, as an intermediate input, and by a household, used in conjunction with a durable good. We estimate a stochastic volatility process for the real price of oil over the period 1986?2011 and utilize the estimated process in a nonlinear approximation of the model. For realistic calibrations, an increase in oil price volatility produces a temporary decrease in durable spending, while precautionary savings motives lead investment and real GDP to rise. Irreversible capital and durable investment decisions do not overturn this result.

Keywords: time series analysis; Consumption (Economics); Capital investments; Natural resources; Energy consumption (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39 pages
Date: 2012
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-dge, nep-ene and nep-mac
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Related works:
Working Paper: Time-Varying Oil Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Aggregates (2012)
Working Paper: Time-Varying Oil Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Aggregates (2012)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:feddwp:1201

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DOI: 10.24149/wp1201

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