Inducing Sparsity and Shrinkage in Time-Varying Parameter Models

Florian Huber, Gary Koop and Luca Onorante

No 2019-2, Working Papers in Economics from University of Salzburg

Abstract: Time-varying parameter (TVP) models have the potential to be over-parameterized, particularly when the number of variables in the model is large. Global-local priors are increasingly used to induce shrink- age in such models. But the estimates produced by these priors can still have appreciable uncertainty. Sparsification has the potential to remove this uncertainty and improve forecasts. In this paper, we develop computationally simple methods which both shrink and sparsify TVP models. In a simulated data exercise we show the benefits of our shrink-then-sparsify approach in a variety of sparse and dense TVP regressions. In a macroeconomic forecast exercise, we find our approach to substantially improve forecast performance relative to shrinkage alone.

Keywords: Sparsity; shrinkage; hierarchical priors; time varying parameter regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C30 D31 E30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31 pages
Date: 2019-05-26
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-ets, nep-for, nep-mac and nep-ore
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Inducing Sparsity and Shrinkage in Time-Varying Parameter Models (2021)
Working Paper: Inducing Sparsity and Shrinkage in Time-Varying Parameter Models (2019)
Working Paper: Inducing sparsity and shrinkage in time-varying parameter models (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:sbgwpe:2019_002

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