Working Papers

From Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
Contact information at EDIRC.
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2119: Declining Labor Market Informality in Turkey: Unregistered Employment and Wage Underreporting

Yusuf Bağır, Müşerref Küçükbayrak and Huzeyfe Torun

2118: Assessing the Effects of Covid-19 Containment Measures on Manufacturing and Services Industries

Cem Ali Gokcen

2117: Tradable and Non-tradable Inflation in Turkey: Predicting Different States with Markov Regime-Switching Approach

Hulya Saygili and Aysun Turkvatan

2116: Determinants of ICO Success and Post-ICO Performance

Aylin Aslan, Ahmet Sensoy and Levent Akdeniz

2115: Heterogeneous Effect of Exchange Rates on Firms’ Exports: Role of Labor Intensity

Kurmaş Akdoğan, Yusuf Bağır and Huzeyfe Torun

2114: Constructing an Economic Activity Indicator for Turkey

Aysu Celgin and Elif Akbostanci

2113: Tariff Changes by Turkey During the Covid-19 Pandemic: Impact on Import Value and Import Prices

Yusuf Bağır

2112: Does Stock Market Listing Boost or Impede Corporate Investment?

Ibrahim Yarba and Ahmet Duhan Yassa

2111: Nowcasting and Short-term Forecasting Turkish GDP: Factor-MIDAS Approach

Selcuk Gul and Abdullah Kazdal

2110: Firm-Level Impact of Credit Guarantees: Evidence from Turkish Credit Guarantee Fund

Ufuk Akcigit, Ünal Seven, Ibrahim Yarba and Fatih Yilmaz

2109: The Importance of External Shocks and Global Monetary Conditions for A Small-Open Economy

Gulnihal Tuzun

2108: Okun’s Law under the Demographic Dynamics of the Turkish Labor Market

Evren Erdoğan Coşar and Ayse Arzu Yavuz

2107: Potential Growth in Turkey: Sources and Trends

Orhun Sevinc, Ufuk Demiroglu, Emre Cakir and E. Meltem Bastan

2106: Cost of Credit and House Prices

Yusuf Emre Akgunduz, H. Ozlem Dursun-de Neef, Yavuz Selim Hacihasanoglu and Fatih Yilmaz

2105: External Vulnerabilities and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Case of Emerging Markets

Abdullah Kazdal and Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz

2104: The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Turkish Sovereign Yield Curve

Oguzhan Cepni, Selcuk Gul, Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz and Brian Lucey

2103: Decomposition of Bank Loans and Economic Activity in Turkey

Hande Kucuk, Pınar Özbay Özlü and Çağlar Yüncüler

2102: The Role of Expectations in the Inflation Process in Turkey: Have the Dynamics Changed Recently?

Umit Koc, Fethi Ogunc and Utku Ozmen

2101: Consequences of a Massive Refugee Influx on Firm Performance and Market Structure

Yusuf Emre Akgunduz, Yusuf Bağır, Seyit Cilasun and Murat Gunay Kirdar

2015: Do Household Consumption and Saving Preferences Vary Between Birth-Year Cohorts in Turkey?

Evren Ceritoğlu

2014: Credit Decomposition and Economic Activity in Turkey: A Wavelet-Based Approach

Oguzhan Cepni, Yavuz Selim Hacihasanoglu and Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz

2013: Do Investment Incentives Promote Regional Growth and Income Convergence in Turkey?

Hulya Saygili

2012: An Analysis of International Shock Transmission: A Multi-level Factor Augmented TVP GVAR Approach

Bahar Sungurtekin Hallam

2011: Synchronization, Concordance and Similarity between Business and Credit Cycles: Evidence from Turkish Banking Sector

Mehmet Selman Colak, Abdullah Kazdal and Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz

2010: Identification of Wealthy Households from the Residential Property Price Index Database for Sample Selection for Household Surveys

Evren Ceritoğlu and Ozlem Sevinc

2009: Corporate Debt Maturity, Repayment Structure and Monetary Policy Transmission

Hatice Karasoy Can

2008: Detecting the Position of Countries in Global Value Chains Using a Bilateral Approach

Oguzhan Erdogan

2007: A Measure of Turkey's Sovereign and Banking Sector Credit Risk: Asset Swap Spreads

Abdullah Kazdal, Halil Korkmaz, Doruk Küçüksaraç and Yigit Onay

2006: Nowcasting Turkish GDP Growth with Targeted Predictors: Fill in the Blanks

Mahmut Gunay

2005: Bank Lending and Maturity: the Anatomy of the Transmission of Monetary Policy

Selva Bahar Baziki and Tanju Capacioglu

2004: Do Local and Global Factors Impact the Emerging Markets’s Sovereign Yield Curves? Evidence from a Data-Rich Environment

Oguzhan Cepni, Ibrahim Ethem Guney, Doruk Küçüksaraç and Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz

2003: The Role of Imported Inputs in Pass-through Dynamics

Dilara Ertug, Pınar Özbay Özlü, Utku Ozmen and Çağlar Yüncüler

2002: Nowcasting Turkish GDP with MIDAS: Role of Functional Form of the Lag Polynomial

Mahmut Gunay

2001: How Do Credits Dollarize? The Role of Firm’s Natural Hedges, Banks’ Core and Non-Core Liabilities

Fatih Yilmaz

1936: Hidden Reserves as an Alternative Channel of Firm Finance in a Major Developing Economy

Ibrahim Yarba

1935: Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Turkey

Tayyar Buyukbasaran, Cem Cebi and Erdal Yılmaz

1934: Cyclically Adjusted Current Account Balance of Turkey

Okan Eren and Gulnihal Tuzun

1933: Term Premium in Turkish Lira Interest Rates

Halil Aydin and Ozgur Ozel

1932: Decomposing Uncertainty in Turkey into Its Determinants

Emine Meltem Bastan and Umit Ozlale

1931: Demographic Transition and Inflation in Emerging Economies

Koray Kalafatcılar and Utku Ozmen

1930: Facts on Business Dynamism in Turkey

Ufuk Akcigit, Yusuf Emre Akgunduz, Seyit Cilasun, Elif Ozcan Tok and Fatih Yilmaz

1929: Monitoring and Forecasting Cyclical Dynamics in Bank Credits: Evidence from Turkish Banking Sector

Mehmet Çolak, Ibrahim Ethem Guney, Ahmet Senol and Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz

1928: Intraday Volume-Volatility Nexus in the FX Markets: Evidence from an Emerging Market

Suleyman Serdengecti and Ahmet Sensoy

1927: Is There Asymmetry between GDP and Labor Market Variables in Turkey under Okun�s Law?

Evren Erdoğan Coşar and Ayse Arzu Yavuz

1926: Composing High-Frequency Financial Conditions Index and Implications for Economic Activity

Abdullah Kazdal, Halil Korkmaz and Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz

1925: A Bayesian VAR Approach to Short-Term Inflation Forecasting

Fethi Ogunc

1924: Foreign Currency Debt and the Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Salih Fendoglu, Mehmet Çolak and Yavuz Selim Hacihasanoglu

1923: Two and a Half Million Syrian Refugees, Tasks and Capital Intensity

Yusuf Emre Akgunduz and Huzeyfe Torun

1922: Estimates of Exchange Rate Pass-through with Product-level Data

Yusuf Emre Akgunduz, Emine Meltem Bastan, Ufuk Demiroglu and Semih Tumen

1921: Skill-Biased Occupation Growth

Orhun Sevinc