Working Papers

From Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
Contact information at EDIRC.
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1932: Decomposing Uncertainty in Turkey into Its Determinants

Emine Meltem Bastan and Umit Ozlale

1931: Demographic Transition and Inflation in Emerging Economies

Koray Kalafatcılar and Utku Ozmen

1930: Facts on Business Dynamism in Turkey

Ufuk Akcigit, Yusuf Emre Akgunduz, Seyit Cilasun, Elif Ozcan Tok and Fatih Yilmaz

1929: Monitoring and Forecasting Cyclical Dynamics in Bank Credits: Evidence from Turkish Banking Sector

Mehmet Çolak, Ibrahim Ethem Guney, Ahmet Senol and Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz

1928: Intraday Volume-Volatility Nexus in the FX Markets: Evidence from an Emerging Market

Suleyman Serdengecti and Ahmet Sensoy

1927: Is There Asymmetry between GDP and Labor Market Variables in Turkey under Okun�s Law?

Evren Erdoğan Coşar and Ayse Arzu Yavuz

1926: Composing High-Frequency Financial Conditions Index and Implications for Economic Activity

Abdullah Kazdal, Halil Korkmaz and Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz

1925: A Bayesian VAR Approach to Short-Term Inflation Forecasting

Fethi Ogunc

1924: Foreign Currency Debt and the Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Salih Fendoglu, Mehmet Çolak and Yavuz Selim Hacihasanoglu

1923: Two and a Half Million Syrian Refugees, Tasks and Capital Intensity

Yusuf Emre Akgunduz and Huzeyfe Torun

1922: Estimates of Exchange Rate Pass-through with Product-level Data

Yusuf Emre Akgunduz, Emine Meltem Bastan, Ufuk Demiroglu and Semih Tumen

1921: Skill-Biased Occupation Growth

Orhun Sevinc

1920: Impact of Minimum Wages on Exporters: Evidence From a Sharp Minimum Wage Increase in Turkey

Yusuf Emre Akgunduz, Altan Aldan, Yusuf Bağır and Huzeyfe Torun

1919: An Analysis to Detect Exuberance and Implosion in Regional House Prices in Turkey

Evren Ceritoğlu, Seyit Cilasun, Ufuk Demiroglu and Aytul Ganioglu

1918: A Trade-Based Misallocation Index

Orhun Sevinc

1917: Invoicing Currency, Exchange Rate Pass-through and Value-Added Trade: An Emerging Country Case

Hulya Saygili

1916: Exchange Rate Driven Balance Sheet Effect and Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies

Can Kadirgan

1915: Leverage Dynamics: Do Financial Development and Government Leverage Matter? Evidence from a Major Developing Economy

Ibrahim Yarba and Zehra Nuray Guner

1914: Convergence in House Prices: Cross-Regional Evidence for Turkey

Aytul Ganioglu and Ünal Seven

1913: Global Liquidity and the Impairment of Local Monetary Policy Transmission

Salih Fendoglu, Eda Gulsen and Jose-Luis Peydro

1912: Measuring Inflation Uncertainty in Turkey

Eda Gulsen and Hakan Kara

1911: Demographic Developments and Their Macroeconomic Impacts

Koray Kalafatcılar

1910: Macroprudential Policies, Persistence of Uncertainty and Leverage Dynamics: Evidence from a Major Developing Economy

Ibrahim Yarba and Zehra Nuray Guner

1909: The Evolution of Import Content of Production and Exports in Turkey: 2002-2017

Yasemin Erduman, Okan Eren and Selcuk Gul

1908: Exports, Imported Inputs, and Domestic Supply Networks

Yusuf Emre Akgunduz and Salih Fendoglu

1907: Bargaining on Supply Chain Networks with Heterogeneous Valuations

Elif Ozcan Tok

1906: Identifying Credit Supply Shocks in Turkey

Tayyar Buyukbasaran, Hatice Karasoy Can and Hande Kucuk

1905: Determinants of the Rise in Female Labor Force Participation: Identifying Cohort Effects

Altan Aldan and Selcen Ozturk

1904: A New Index Score for the Assessment of Firm Financial Risks

Mehmet Çolak

1903: Estimation of FX Option Implied Density Functions: Nonparametric-Malz Approach

Halil Korkmaz, Doruk Küçüksaraç, Yigit Onay and Ahmet Senol

1902: An Analysis on the Domestic Sales and Exports: A Dynamic Model for the Turkish Manufacturing Firms

Selcuk Gul

1901: Tax Elasticity Estimates for Capital Stocks

Fatih Yilmaz and Jean-Francois Wen

1820: Explaining Exchange Rate Movements Using Yield Curves in Emerging Countries

Murat Duran

1819: Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth: An Update

Bulent Ulasan

1818: Tracing the Impact of a Sudden Stop: The Role of Bank Rollover Risks, Expectations, and Domestic Production Networks

Salih Fendoglu and Steven Ongena

1817: Dependence of �Fragile Five" and �Troubled Ten" Emerging Markets' Financial System to US Monetary Policy and Monetary Policy Uncertainty

Meltem Chadwick

1816: Measuring Financial Systemic Stress for Turkey: A Search for the Best Composite Indicator

Meltem Chadwick and Huseyin Ozturk

1815: VAT Treatment of the Financial Services: Implications for the Real Economy

Fatih Yilmaz and Ï¿½smail Baydur

1814: Net External Position, Financial Development, and Banking Crisis

Aytul Ganioglu

1813: Transportation Mode Choice and International Fragmentation of Production: Evidence from a Developing Country

Hulya Saygili and Kemal Turkcan

1812: Turkiye'de Reel Kur Hareketlerinin �hracat Uzerindeki Asimetrik Etkileri (Asymmetric Effects of Real Exchange Rate Movements on Turkish Exports)

Selcuk Gul

1811: The Impact of Monetary Policy Stance, Financial Conditions, and the GFC on Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivity

Selcuk Gul and Huseyin Tastan

1810: Inflation Dynamics in Turkey from a Bayesian Perspective

Fethi Ogunc, Utku Ozmen and Cagri Sarikaya

1809: The Effect of Fed�s Future Policy Expectations on Country Shares in Emerging Market Portfolio Flows

Zelal Aktas, Yasemin Erduman and Neslihan Kaya Eksi

1808: Evolution of the University Wage Premium in Turkey: 2004-2015

Okan Eren

1807: Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output and Output Gap in Turkey

Selen Andic

1806: Quantifying Uncertainty and Identifying its Impacts on the Turkish Economy

Evren Erdoğan Coşar and Saygin Sahinoz

1805: Forecasting Industrial Production and Inflation in Turkey with Factor Models

Mahmut Gunay

1804: A Revised Direct Output Gap Measure for the Turkish Economy

Evren Erdoğan Coşar

1803: Import Demand Function for Turkey

Olcay Yucel Culha, Okan Eren and Ferya Ogunc