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Unemployment: The Coming Storm, Who Gets Hit, Who Gets Hurt, and Policy Remedies

Jake Anders, Andrew Dickerson, Paul Gregg and Lindsey Macmillan ()
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Paul Gregg: Department of Social and Policy Sciences, University of Bath

No 20-12, CEPEO Working Paper Series from UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities

Abstract: While recent forecasts have pointed to an employment shock of a similar magnitude to that seen in the previous Great Recession, many of the circumstances this time round suggest we may be facing a more severe experience. This is likely to disproportionately affect young people, those from deprived families both in adulthood and in childhood, ethnic minorities, and those with low levels of education. Evidence shows that there are long-term costs to spells out of work, including reduced employment opportunities and wages, alongside lower job satisfaction, health and happiness. A combined response of macro-level interventions, alongside individually-targeted education, skills and active labour market policy responses are required. Targeted cuts to National Insurance, changing the incentives of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS), increasing access courses to higher education, funding further education routes, and combined interventions including targeted job support schemes and high quality work placements are all policies that can aid recovery and minimise the costs of scarring.

Keywords: unemployment; COVID-19; scarring; ALMP; education policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 I28 J68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2020-07, Revised 2020-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-edu, nep-eur, nep-ias, nep-lab and nep-mac
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