Economics at your fingertips  

Interactions between financial markets and macroeconomic variables in EU: a nonlinear modeling approach

Lucian Albu, Radu Lupu () and Adrian Cantemir Calin

ERSA conference papers from European Regional Science Association

Abstract: There is a general acceptance of the fact that a significant direct relationship between financial markets and macroeconomic variables exists, especially by considering the assertion that developed financial markets correspond to high GDP levels. This paper provides an investigation of the correlation between the market capitalization and stock market dynamics on one hand and GDP per capita on the other hand, for two groups of regions in EU (western countries, EU15, and central and eastern countries, EU11). Based on data for a number of EU countries (both western and eastern) and using some special modelling techniques, we provide an analysis of the convergence phenomenon for both the macroeconomic variables and the financial ones. Using a deep time resolution and some spline functions we generated high frequency time series (the so-called virtual monthly GDP) to investigate the correlations with financial markets. In spite of ECB?s carefull monitoring of the financial integration within the euro zone, a possible financial integration process within the non-euro zone continues to be ignored. It seems that due to the weak development of financial markets, the economies outside of the euro zone are relatively more protected against crisis when compared to those inside the euro zone. Therefore, the so-called contagion effect is weaker in the Central and Eastern region of European Union.

Keywords: macroeconomic variables; financial crisis; convergence; non-linear modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G01 G15 E44 E47 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-fmk and nep-mac
Date: 2015-10
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in ERSA conference papers from European Regional Science Association Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020 Vienna, Austria.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Gunther Maier ().

Page updated 2019-06-25
Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa15p685