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The Golden Halo and Political Transitions

Toke Aidt (), Facundo Albornoz () and Martin Gassebner ()

No 48, Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Hannover 2010 from Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics

Abstract: In this paper we analyze the role of the IMF and the World Bank in triggering changes in the political regime, i.e., democracy and autocracy. We develop a theoretical model which predicts that anticipation of financial flows from international financial institutions may trigger political regime changes which would not take place otherwise. We test the implications of our model empirically and find support both for the role of perfectly foreseen IMF and World Bank programs and of the history of previous World Bank programs. The magnitude of this effects is quite substantial.

Keywords: political transitions; democracy; autocracy; political instability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-cwa, nep-his and nep-pol
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https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/39961/1/338_gassebner.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: The golden hello and political transitions (2018) Downloads
Working Paper: The Golden Hello and Political Transitions (2012) Downloads
Working Paper: The Golden Hello and Political Transitions (2012) Downloads
Working Paper: The Golden Hello and Political Transitions (2012) Downloads
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