EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Accuracy and properties of German business cycle forecasts

Steffen Osterloh ()

No 06-087, ZEW Discussion Papers from ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research

Abstract: In this paper the accuracy of a wide range of German business cycle forecasters is assessed for the past 10 years. For this purpose, a data set is used comprising forecasts published on a monthly basis by Consensus Economics. The application of several descriptive as well as statistical measures reveals that the accuracy of the 2-years forecasts is low relative to a simple na?ve forecast. This observation can mainly be explained by a systematic overestimation of the growth rates by the forecasters. Moreover, the lack of accuracy can also be explained partly by insufficient information efficiency as well as imitation behaviour. Finally, it is shown that notwithstanding the common errors which affected the accuracy of all forecasters mainly because of their systematic overestimation, they differ significantly in their forecast accuracy.

Keywords: business cycle forecasting; forecast evaluation; Consensus forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-for and nep-mac
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/24543/1/dp06087.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Accuracy and Properties of German Business Cycle Forecasts (2008)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5480

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in ZEW Discussion Papers from ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().

 
Page updated 2022-12-21
Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5480