EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Can demography affect inflation and monetary policy?

John Juselius and Elod Takats

No 485, BIS Working Papers from Bank for International Settlements

Abstract: Several countries are concurrently experiencing historically low inflation rates and ageing populations. Is there a connection, as recently suggested by some senior central bankers? We undertake a comprehensive test of this hypothesis in a panel of 22 countries over the 1955–2010 period. We find a stable and significant correlation between demography and low-frequency inflation. In particular, a larger share of dependents (ie young and old) is correlated with higher inflation, while a larger share of working age cohorts is correlated with lower inflation. The results are robust to different country samples, time periods, control variables and estimation techniques. We also find a significant, albeit unstable, relationship between demography and monetary policy.

Keywords: demography; ageing; inflation; monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 50 pages
Date: 2015-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (53)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.bis.org/publ/work485.pdf Full PDF document (application/pdf)
http://www.bis.org/publ/work485.htm (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bis:biswps:485

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in BIS Working Papers from Bank for International Settlements Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Martin Fessler ().

 
Page updated 2025-03-30
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:485