EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Estimates of Personal Sector Wealth for South Africa

John Muellbauer and Janine Aron ()

No 4646, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: In common with many emerging market countries, South Africa?s government does not publish balance sheet wealth estimates on a market value basis, as produced in the US, UK, Japan, and elsewhere. Yet without information on the market values of liquid and illiquid personal sector wealth, it is difficult to explain aggregate consumer spending and saving, consumers? demand for credit, and the broad money holdings of households. Behavioural equations for these variables are key components of central banks? macro-econometric models, used in forecasting and policy-making. Understanding the domestic asset value channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism is especially important for inflation targeting countries. We construct the first coherent set of aggregate, personal sector wealth estimates at market value for South Africa. Our quarterly estimates derive from published data on financial flows, and various other capital market data, often at book value. Our methods rely, where relevant, on accumulating flow of funds data using appropriate benchmarks, and, where necessary, converting book to market values using appropriate asset price indices. Relating asset to income ratios for various asset classes to asset price movements and rates of return, throws light on the changing composition of personal sector wealth. Most striking are the rise in pension wealth - overtaking gross housing assets in the late 1980s; the rise in household debt; and the relative decline of liquid and housing assets, from the early and mid-1980s, respectively.

Keywords: C84; National balance sheets; Personal sector wealth; Saving (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E44 G11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-acc, nep-afr, nep-fin and nep-mac
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP4646 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
Working Paper: Estimates of personal sector wealth for South Africa (1999) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4646

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP4646

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().

 
Page updated 2025-03-19
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4646