Shifting Credit Standards and the Boom and Bust in US House Prices

John Muellbauer, Anthony Murphy and John Duca

No 8361, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: The U.S. house price boom has been linked to an unsustainable easing of mortgage credit standards. However, standard time series models of US house prices omit credit constraints and perform poorly in the 2000?s. We incorporate data on credit constraints for first time buyers into a model of US house prices based on the (inverted) demand for housing services. The model yields not only a stable long-run cointegrating relationship, a reasonable speed of adjustment, plausible income and price elasticities and an improved fit, but also sensible estimates of tax credit effects and the possible bottom in real house prices.

Keywords: House prices; Credit standards; Subprime mortgages (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 C52 E51 G21 R31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-04
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (21)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Shifting Credit Standards and the Boom and Bust in U.S. House Prices (2011)
Working Paper: Shifting credit standards and the boom and bust in U.S. house prices (2011)
Working Paper: Shifting credit standards and the boom and bust in U.S. house prices (2011)
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