Interest rate bands of inaction and play-hysteresis in domestic investment – Evidence for the Euro Area

Ansgar Belke, Coletta Frenzel Baudisch and Matthias Göcke ()

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2020, vol. 175, issue C, 19-39

Abstract: The interest rate is an important monetary policy tool to steer investment to safeguard price stability. Knowledge about the exact shape of the interest rate-investment nexus is thus decisive for the European Central Bank’s efficacy. This is especially so in the currently observed low interest rate environment. We first present a theoretical framework of the hysteretic impact of changes in the interest rate on macroeconomic investment under certainty and under uncertainty to investigate whether uncertainty over future interest rates in the Euro area hampers monetary policy transmission. In this non-linear model, strong reactions in investment activity occur as soon as changes of the interest rate exceed a zone of inaction, that we call ‘play’ area. Second, we apply an algorithm describing path-dependent play-hysteresis to estimate investment hysteresis using data on domestic investment and interest rates on corporate loans for 5 countries of the Euro area in the period ranging from 2001Q1 to 2018Q1. We find hysteretic effects of interest rate changes on investment in most countries. However, their shape and magnitude differ widely across countries which poses a challenge for a unified monetary policy. By introducing uncertainty into the regressions, the results do not change much which may be due to the interest rate implicitly incorporating uncertainty effects in investment decisions, e.g. by risk premia.

Keywords: European Central Bank; Interest rate; Investment; Monetary policy; Non-ideal relay; Path-dependence; Play-hysteresis; Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E44 E49 E52 F21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Interest Rate Bands of Inaction and Play-Hysteresis in Domestic Investment: Evidence for the Euro Area (2019)
Working Paper: Interest Rate Bands of Inaction and Play-Hysteresis in Domestic Investment - Evidence for the Euro Area (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:175:y:2020:i:c:p:19-39

DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2020.03.030

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