Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields

Jens Christensen, Jose Lopez and Glenn Rudebusch

No 2008-34, Working Paper Series from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Abstract: Differences between yields on comparable-maturity U.S. Treasury nominal and real debt, the so-called breakeven inflation (BEI) rates, are widely used indicators of inflation expectations. However, better measures of inflation expectations could be obtained by subtracting inflation risk premiums from the BEI rates. We provide such decompositions using an estimated affine arbitrage-free model of the term structure that captures the pricing of both nominal and real Treasury securities. Our empirical results suggest that long-term inflation expectations have been well anchored over the past few years, and inflation risk premiums, although volatile, have been close to zero on average.

Keywords: Inflation (Finance); Treasury bonds (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

Published in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (September 2010, supplement)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage-Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields (2010)
Journal Article: Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage‐Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields (2010)
Journal Article: Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields (2009)
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