Replacement migration from a labour market perspective: Germany's long-term potential labour force and immigration from non-EU member countries

Johann Fuchs, Alexander Kubis and Lutz Schneider
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Johann Fuchs: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany
Lutz Schneider: University of Applied Sciences and Arts, Coburg

No 201604, IAB-Discussion Paper from Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]

Abstract: "We quantify the development of the potential labour force in Germany from 2014 to 2050 and pose the question as to which extent migration will be able to offset the well-known negative demographic influence. The mean overall results of this long period of time show that while migration may slightly dampen the trend, it cannot fully compensate for it, depending on the development of domestic labour participation. Persistently high immigration numbers, however, will defer the demographic caused decline of the workforce for some years. In contrast, even high, if realistic, immigration flows will only slow down demographic ageing." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland; Auswirkungen; Auswirkungen; EU-Bürger; Drittstaatsangehörige; Bevölkerungsstruktur; demografischer Wandel; Einwanderung; Erwerbsbevölkerung; Erwerbspersonenpotenzial; Altersstruktur; Arbeitskräfteangebot; Szenario; Arbeitsmarktprognose; 2013-2050 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F22 J11 J21 J22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21 pages
Date: 2016
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-eur and nep-mig
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201604

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