The Propagation of Regional Recessions

James Hamilton and Michael Owyang

No 16657, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper develops a framework for inferring common Markov-switching components in a panel data set with large cross-section and time-series dimensions. We apply the framework to studying similarities and differences across U.S. states in the timing of business cycles. We hypothesize that there exists a small number of cluster designations, with individual states in a given cluster sharing certain business cycle characteristics. We find that although oil-producing and agricultural states can sometimes experience a separate recession from the rest of the United States, for the most part, differences across states appear to be a matter of timing, with some states entering recession or recovering before others.

JEL-codes: E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-cba, nep-geo and nep-mac
Note: EFG
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

Published as James D. Hamilton & Michael T. Owyang, 2012. "The Propagation of Regional Recessions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 935-947, November.

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w16657.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: The Propagation of Regional Recessions (2012)
Working Paper: The propagation of regional recessions (2009)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16657

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w16657

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().