Predicting Land Use Change: How Much Does Transportation Matter?

Michael Iacono and David Levinson

No 200911, Working Papers from University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group

Abstract: In this paper, we propose to measure the extent of the influence of transportation systems on land use change. Using a set of high-resolution land use data for the Twin Cities metropolitan region, we estimate logistic regression models of land use change covering a 10-year period from 1990 to 2000. The models account for existing land use types, neighboring land uses, and transportation network variables that measure the physical proximity of highway networks, as well as the level of accessibility associated with a specific location. The models are estimated with and without the transportation variables and compared to assess the extent of their influence. We find (perhaps not surprisingly) that transportation-related variables exert some influence on changes to land use patterns, though not as much as variables representing existing and neighboring land uses.

Keywords: Land use; Twin Cities (Minnesota); Mathematical models; urban growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D63 R41 R48 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-geo and nep-ure
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Published in Transportation Research Record 2119: 130-136

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http://hdl.handle.net/11299/179990 First version, 2008 (application/pdf)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nex:wpaper:predictinglandusechange

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