How Streetcars Shaped Suburbanization: A Granger-Causality Analysis of Land Use and Transit in The Twin Cities

Feng Xie and David Levinson

No 201003, Working Papers from University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group

Abstract: This paper presents a causality analysis of the coupled development of population and streetcars in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. Historic residence and network data were assembled for 1900-1930, and linear cross-sectional time-series models were estimated at both a tract and block level using this data. It is found that, in contrast with transportation systems that were expanded in response to increased demand, the rapid expansion of the streetcar system during the electric era has been driven by other forces and to a large extent led land development in the Twin Cities. The main forces that have driven this process include technological superiority, monopoly, close connections with real estate business, and peopleÕs reliance on the streetcar for mobility. Proximity to the streetcar is found to be a crucial factor that determines the distribution and development of residences: it is observed that residential density declines with the distance from streetcar lines, and significantly drops beyond a walkable distance; it is also observed that gaining a closer access to streetcar lines within 800 meters (about a half mile) predicts the increase in residential density to a significant extent.

Keywords: Transport; land use; Twin Cities (Minnesota); Streetcars; Light Rail Transit; network growth; induced demand; induced supply (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: N73 N74 R21 R31 R42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-geo, nep-his and nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Published in Journal of Economic Geography 10(3), pp. 453-470.

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/11299/179996 First version, 2008 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: How streetcars shaped suburbanization: a Granger causality analysis of land use and transit in the Twin Cities (2010)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nex:wpaper:streetcar

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