Population Policy, Demographic Change, and Firm Returns: Evidence from China

Zhiyong An and Hou Yilin ()
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Hou Yilin: Center for Policy Research, The Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, Syracuse University, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244-1020, USA

The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 2019, vol. 19, issue 1, 11

Abstract: We take advantage of China’s relaxation in January 2014 of its “one-child” family planning policy to study the causal relationship between expected future demographic changes and firms’ stock returns. We use an event study method as our identification strategy and employ data from Chinese stock markets to implement the analysis. We find consistent evidence suggesting that expected demographic changes exert statistically and economically significant effects on firms’ stock returns. We address four potential threats about the validity of our empirical design and argue that our conclusion is not China-specific, but a generic lesson portable to developed countries.

Keywords: demographics; family planning policy; stock return; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D22 G18 J11 J12 L60 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1515/bejeap-2018-0128

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