Motivated Beliefs Under Delayed Uncertainty Resolution

Charlotte Cordes, Jana Friedrichsen and Simeon Schudy

No 12286, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: Experimental studies show that individuals update beliefs about ego-relevant information optimistically when they expect no resolution of uncertainty but neutrally when their ability is revealed immediately. This paper studies belief updating and the role of motivated memory when feedback is delayed but eventually disclosed. In a longitudinal experiment, participants receive noisy signals about their relative performance in a IQ-related task (Raven matrices) and learn their true rank four weeks later. Across subjects, belief updating is asymmetric: unfavorable signals are weighted less than favorable signals. Further, we identify motivated memory among participants who view the task as ego-relevant.

Keywords: motivated beliefs; feedback; memory; Anticipatory utility; motivated cognition; uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C91 D03 D81 D83 D84 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12286

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