Artificial Intelligence and Growth in Advanced and Emerging Economies: Short-Run Impact

Leonardo Gambacorta, Enisse Kharroubi, Aaron Mehrotra and Tommaso Oliviero ()

No 20992, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: This paper investigates whether the positive effects of generative artificial intelligence (gen AI) on growth rate of value added differ across countries in the short run. Using an empirical strategy inspired by Rajan and Zingales (1998) and a dataset covering 56 economies and 16 industries, we find that the differential growth effects arise from variations in sectoral exposure to cognitive and knowledge-intensive activities, differences in production structures, and countries’ AI preparedness. Our results suggest that, on average, gen AI is likely to benefit advanced economies more than emerging market economies, thereby widening global income disparities in the near term.

Keywords: General artificial intelligence; Emerging market and developing economies; Economic growth; Productivity differences; Technology diffusion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 O47 O57 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-01
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Working Paper: Artificial intelligence and growth in advanced and emerging economies: short-run impact (2025)
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