Probabilities as Similarity-Weighted Frequencies

Antoine Billot, Itzhak Gilboa, David Schmeidler and Dov Samet

No 1492, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers from Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University

Abstract: A decision maker is asked to express her beliefs by assigning probabilities to certain possible states. We focus on the relationship between her database and her beliefs. We show that, if beliefs given a union of two databases are a convex combination of beliefs given each of the databases, the belief formation process follows a simple formula: beliefs are a similarity-weighted average of the beliefs induced by each past case.

Keywords: Similarity; Probability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C8 D8 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20 pages
Date: 2004-11
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Published in Econometrica (2005), 73: 1125-1136

Downloads: (external link)
https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d14/d1492.pdf (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 404 Not Found

Related works:
Chapter: Probabilities as Similarity-Weighted Frequencies (2012)
Journal Article: Probabilities as Similarity-Weighted Frequencies (2005)
Working Paper: Probabilities as Similarity-Weighted Frequencies (2005)
Working Paper: Probabilities as Similarity-Weighted Frequencies (2004)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1492

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
The price is None.

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers from Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Brittany Ladd ().