The Future Fortunes of R-star: Are They Really Rising?

John Williams

FRBSF Economic Letter, 2018

Abstract: In the current economic environment, it?s important to distinguish between the strong economic conditions and the key longer-run drivers underpinning interest rates. Three factors?demographics, productivity growth, and the demand for safe assets?all point to the natural rate of interest, known as r-star, remaining low for quite some time. The following is adapted from a speech by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Economic Club of Minnesota in Minneapolis on May 15.

Date: 2018
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