Tracking Labor Market Stress

Rohit Garimella, Oscar Jorda and Sanjay Singh

FRBSF Economic Letter, 2025, vol. 2025, issue 19, 6

Abstract: State-level unemployment claims can provide a real-time measure of national labor market conditions and the overall state of the economy. A rapid and widespread buildup of stress in state labor markets usually signals the start of a recession. In mid-2024, some widely followed indicators of recession risk flashed red. However, analysis of state-level data indicates that labor market declines were not as widespread as they had been in previous recessions. Applying this analysis to the latest data suggests that the labor market has remained stable through mid-2025.

Keywords: labor markets; economic health; unemployment rate; interest rates (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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