Fed Communications and Inflation Expectations

Michael Bauer and Wesley Wasserburger

FRBSF Economic Letter, 2026, vol. 2026, issue 08, 6

Abstract: Monetary policy surprises—changes in various interest rates around central bank communication events—reflect new information in monetary policy actions and communications. For the Federal Reserve, surprises around Federal Open Market Committee statements and post-meeting press conferences have, in recent years, often led to meaningful market surprises that capture policy news. Event-study analysis provides new market-based evidence of monetary policy transmission: Hawkish policy surprises lower market-based inflation expectations, while dovish surprises raise them, in line with standard monetary transmission. These effects are especially strong at longer horizons.

Keywords: monetary policy; communications; Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/el2026-08.pdf PDF - view (application/pdf)
https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/public ... nomic-letter-2026-08 FRBSF - view (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedfel:102976

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in FRBSF Economic Letter from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library ().