Who wins and who loses? Public transfer accounts for US generations born 1850 to 2090

Antoine Bommier (), Ronald Lee (), Timothy Miller and Stéphane Zuber
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Antoine Bommier: GREMAQ - Groupe de recherche en économie mathématique et quantitative - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Timothy Miller: Population Division (CELADE), Chile

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Abstract: Public transfer programs in industrial nations are thought to benefit the elderly through pension and health care programs at the expense of the young and future generations. However, this intergenerational picture changes if public education is also considered as a transfer program. We calculate the net present value (NPV) of benefits received minus taxes paid for US generations born 1850 to 2090. Surprisingly, all generations 1950 to 2050 are net gainers, while many current elderly are losers. Windfall gains from starting Social Security and Medicare partially offset windfall losses from starting public education, roughly consistent with the Becker-Murphy theory.

Date: 2004-12
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01953279v1
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Published in Population and Development Review, 2004, pp.e10969

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Related works:
Journal Article: Who Wins and Who Loses? Public Transfer Accounts for US Generations Born 1850 to 2090 (2010)
Working Paper: Who Wins and Who Loses? Public Transfer Accounts for US Generations Born 1850 to 2090 (2004)
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